NASA-funded study finds Mars terraforming impossible with present technology
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A 2018 NASA-funded study published in Nature Astronomy concluded that Mars cannot be terraformed with current technology, because the planet lacks enough accessible carbon dioxide to warm its atmosphere. The finding reinforces that any human presence on Mars would require sealed, pressurized habitats to survive the near-vacuum, extreme cold, and constant radiation. Despite ongoing plans for crewed missions by agencies like NASA and SpaceX, surface conditions — including toxic perchlorates and average temperatures of minus 60°C — make open-air living impossible without a technological leap.
Mars Surface Conditions
The Martian atmosphere is 95% carbon dioxide with surface pressure less than 1% of Earth's at sea level, according to NASA. This near-vacuum causes water to boil at body temperature, meaning an unprotected human would require a pressurized suit to prevent bodily fluids from vaporizing. Average temperatures hover around minus 60°C, and gravity is just 38% of Earth's. The surface receives roughly 0.7 millisieverts of radiation per day, as measured by the Curiosity rover, many times the typical dose on Earth. Soil across the planet contains perchlorates, toxic chemicals that would need to be removed from any locally grown food. Water exists only as ice at the poles and in the ground, because liquid water cannot remain stable in the low pressure.
Terraforming Impossibility
A 2018 study by Bruce Jakosky and Christopher Edwards, published in Nature Astronomy, assessed all known carbon dioxide reservoirs on Mars using two decades of spacecraft data. They found that even if every accessible source were released—from polar ice caps, soil, and minerals—the atmospheric pressure would rise to only about 7% of Earth's, far below the threshold needed for meaningful warming. Most of the planet's CO2 is locked in forms that cannot be readily mobilized with current technology. The study concluded that terraforming Mars with present-day means is not possible, effectively shutting down visions of an Earth-like open-air environment.
Sealed Habitat Survival
With terraforming ruled out, any long-term human presence on Mars will depend on pressurized, life-support habitats that shield against radiation and maintain breathable air. These structures would need to recycle water and oxygen, and possibly use thick regolith layers for radiation protection, as Mars lacks a global magnetic field. Growing food would require removing perchlorates from soil and controlling artificial light and temperature. The daily radiation dose of 0.7 mSv, while not immediately lethal, would accumulate over a mission, posing long-term cancer risks, so habitats and shelters would be essential for safety. Space agencies are currently developing habitat prototypes, but no system has yet been tested for the multi-year durations a Mars settlement would demand.
What's Next
NASA and other space agencies continue to develop technologies for surface habitats and in-situ resource utilization, but no concrete timeline for a sustained human presence exists. It remains unclear whether future breakthroughs in planetary engineering, such as artificial magnetic shields or greenhouse gas factories, could ever make Mars' surface habitable without pressure suits.
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NASA-funded study finds Mars terraforming impossible with present technology
