Kazakhstan's electricity surplus fragile as demand outpaces supply
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Kazakhstan's electricity output reached a record 123.1 billion kWh in 2025, but consumption of 124.6 billion kWh left a deficit, raising fears of future blackouts. The government projects a surplus by 2027, while a slight excess in early 2026 has done little to ease concerns about aging plants and surging demand.
Production and Consumption Gap
Kazakhstan generated 123.1 billion kWh in 2025, a historic high, but consumption of 124.6 billion kWh resulted in a 1.5 billion kWh shortfall. The country operates 251 generation sources, including 169 renewable facilities and aging coal plants. Population growth, industrial expansion, data centers, and electric transport are driving demand ever higher.
Government Surplus Forecast
Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov announced that new generation capacity commissioned by 2029 will create a surplus and fully meet economic and household needs. In Q1 2026, production exceeded consumption by 100 million kWh, a narrow 33.7 billion kWh against 33.6 billion kWh. The ministry expects self-sufficiency by 2027 and a 20% production surplus by 2029.
Expert Warnings on Reliability
Atameken expert Bakhytbek Baizakov warns that the surplus plan depends on all new plants being built on schedule; past delays have already stressed the grid. Even a one-month delay can be critical during peak loads. Kazakhstan Energy Supply Organizations Association head Sergei Agafonov calls the current surplus 'operational' and unstable, noting that summer demand may erase it. Many existing units face technical limits or are under repair, reducing effective capacity.
What's Next
New power projects are slated for completion by 2029, but repeated delays threaten the timeline. Analysts remain uncertain whether Kazakhstan can avoid seasonal outages as consumption continues to rise.
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Kazakhstan's electricity surplus fragile as demand outpaces supply
