Kazakh tenge weakens 1.2% in week, closes at 476.1 per dollar
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The Kazakh tenge weakened sharply on July 24, with the dollar rising to 476.1 tenge on the KASE exchange, erasing gains from earlier in the week. The national currency lost 5.8 tenge (1.2%) over the week, closing at its lowest point since late June. The reversal came despite a rally in Brent crude oil prices to $97.9 per barrel, driven by Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea.
Weekly Trading Dynamics
The average dollar rate on KASE fell from 470.3 tenge on Monday to 465.7 tenge by Thursday, before jumping to 476.1 tenge on Friday, according to Tengenomika. The intraday range reached 10.4 tenge, with the weekly average at 469.9 tenge. Daily trading volumes averaged $366.1 million, peaking at $593.7 million on Thursday and remaining high at $491.6 million on Friday, as demand for dollars surged.
Oil Price Surge and Export Constraints
Brent crude rose 9.7% over the week to $97.9 per barrel, briefly exceeding $100 on Thursday after Houthi rebels announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea. However, Kazakhstan's oil exports faced disruptions: drone attacks on Caspian Pipeline Consortium facilities near Novorossiysk forced temporary production cuts to prevent storage overflow, limiting the positive impact of higher prices on export revenues.
External Factors and Dollar Strength
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose from 101.0 to 101.4 points, reflecting broad dollar strength that constrained emerging-market currencies. The strong dollar likely prevented the tenge from fully benefiting from the oil rally, analysts noted. The July average dollar rate stands at 471.2 tenge, 1.1% below the National Bureau of Economic Research's baseline scenario of 476.7 tenge.
What's Next
Traders will watch for further developments in the Red Sea and any impact on global oil supply chains. It remains unclear whether the tenge can stabilize near current levels or face additional pressure from continued dollar strength and export uncertainties.
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Kazakh tenge weakens 1.2% in week, closes at 476.1 per dollar
