Trump's nuclear policy shift risks Middle East arms race
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The Trump administration initially offered Saudi Arabia a civilian nuclear deal without requiring normalization with Israel, but reversed course under Israeli pressure. The shift comes as the Iran war increases the likelihood of an Iranian nuclear weapon, raising fears of a regional arms race.
The Nuclear Concession
The Trump administration was prepared to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically without requiring normalization with Israel, a concession previous U.S. administrations had treated as a key bargaining chip. The offer was made as Washington sought to regain control of the Iran war, which has spiraled beyond initial objectives. By late Thursday, under what analysts describe as intense Israeli pressure, the precondition of normalization with Israel was reinstated.
Iran War Fallout
The conflict with Iran has made an Iranian nuclear weapon more likely, according to analysts. The U.S. has lost control of the war, which has become focused on control of the Strait of Hormuz—a problem that did not exist before the conflict. The administration's inability to contain the war has undermined its nonproliferation goals.
Congressional Hurdle
The nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia requires congressional approval, which is uncertain. Lawmakers have historically opposed transferring sensitive enrichment technology without strict safeguards. The reversal on normalization conditions may not be enough to secure bipartisan support, as concerns over regional proliferation persist.
What's Next
Congress is expected to debate the Saudi nuclear deal in the coming weeks, with hearings likely to focus on nonproliferation risks. It remains unclear whether the administration can secure enough votes, especially given the deteriorating situation in the Iran war.
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Trump's nuclear policy shift risks Middle East arms race
