EABR forecasts dollar at 490 tenge, base rate at 16%
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The Eurasian Development Bank (EABR) projects the dollar exchange rate at 490 tenge and the base rate at 16% in its latest macroeconomic forecast. The forecast reflects expectations of continued inflationary pressure and a gradual tightening of monetary policy in Kazakhstan.
The Forecast
The Eurasian Development Bank (EABR) released a macroeconomic forecast projecting the dollar exchange rate at 490 tenge and the base rate at 16% for the coming period. The forecast is based on assumptions of sustained inflation and a cautious monetary policy stance by the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The EABR expects the tenge to remain under pressure from global factors and domestic demand.
Economic Context
Kazakhstan's economy faces headwinds from high inflation, which stood at 8.5% in May 2026, and a weakening tenge that has lost 12% against the dollar this year. The National Bank has raised the base rate to 15.25% in June, with further hikes expected. The EABR's forecast aligns with market expectations of continued tightening.
Pawnshop Loans Surge, Auto Lending Drops
Kazakhstanis are increasingly pawning gold and electronics, with pawnshop loan volumes rising 15.3% in the quarter. Meanwhile, bank auto lending fell 26.6% as lenders tightened conditions. The digital tenge has been officially legalized.
Conflict-Driven Exchange Rate Pressure
The transcript links tenge depreciation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, absent from the article. It projects USD/KZT at 442-447 and RUB/KZT at 5.57 under pessimistic scenarios, providing specific rate targets.
What's Next
The National Bank is set to announce its next base rate decision on July 15. It remains unclear whether the bank will match the EABR's projection of 16% or adopt a more aggressive stance if inflation accelerates.
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EABR forecasts dollar at 490 tenge, base rate at 16%
