Goldman Sachs sees Brent at $120 on Middle East disruption
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Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude could reach $120 per barrel if Middle East tensions disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. The bank's baseline scenario sees Brent averaging $80 in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027 if the situation stabilizes.
The Forecast
Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude oil prices could spike to $120 per barrel if Middle East tensions escalate further, according to a report cited by Egemen.kz. The bank warns that a sustained disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and continued Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping could trigger the surge. The baseline forecast assumes a stabilization of regional conflicts, with Brent averaging $80 in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027.
Risk Scenarios
Analysts caution that if Gulf oil exports fall below 45% of pre-war levels, prices could rise sharply. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, remains vulnerable to disruptions from Iran-related tensions. Houthi actions in the Red Sea have already constrained maritime traffic, adding to supply-side risks.
What's Next
The market will watch for any escalation in Middle East conflicts that could trigger the $120 scenario. It remains unclear whether diplomatic efforts can stabilize the region enough to keep prices within Goldman Sachs' baseline range.
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Goldman Sachs sees Brent at $120 on Middle East disruption
