Scientists forecast Caspian Sea level to drop 5m by 2030
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Scientists forecast the Caspian Sea level could drop by 5 meters by 2030, with the rate of shallowing accelerating nearly threefold. The decline threatens coastal infrastructure and ecosystems in Kazakhstan and neighboring states.
Accelerated Decline
The Caspian Sea level is dropping at a rate nearly three times faster than previously recorded, according to a study by Kazakh and Russian scientists. The sea has lost about 2 meters since 2005, with the pace intensifying in recent years. Researchers attribute the trend to reduced river inflow and increased evaporation linked to rising temperatures.
Regional Impact
Kazakhstan's Caspian coast, home to major oil fields and the port of Aktau, faces significant economic risks. A 5-meter drop would expose vast areas of seabed, disrupt shipping routes, and damage spawning grounds for sturgeon. The forecast also threatens water supplies for coastal communities in Atyrau and Mangystau regions.
What's Next
The research team plans to present updated models at a conference in Astana in September. It remains unclear whether regional governments will coordinate mitigation measures or if the decline will accelerate further.
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Scientists forecast Caspian Sea level to drop 5m by 2030
