Caspian Sea water level drops 15 cm annually, study finds
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The Caspian Sea, the world's largest inland water body, is losing water at an accelerating rate, with levels dropping by an average of 15 centimeters per year, according to a new study by Kazakh and Russian scientists. The decline threatens coastal ecosystems, fisheries, and infrastructure in Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. Even as regional governments acknowledge the crisis, coordinated action remains limited.
The Decline
The Caspian Sea has lost approximately 1.5 meters of water depth over the past decade, with the rate of decline accelerating in recent years. The study, published by the Kazakh Institute of Geography and the Russian Academy of Sciences, attributes 70% of the loss to reduced inflow from the Volga River, which supplies 80% of the sea's freshwater. Climate change has reduced snowfall in the Volga basin, cutting river discharge by 12% since 2000.
Regional Impact
Kazakhstan's Caspian coast, home to major oil fields such as Kashagan and Tengiz, faces increased infrastructure risks as receding waters expose pipelines and loading terminals. In Russia, the port of Astrakhan has reported a 30% drop in cargo traffic due to shallower channels. Iran's Gilan province has seen fishing catches decline by 40% over five years, affecting 50,000 livelihoods.
Scientific Warning
The study projects a further 5-10 meter drop by 2100 under current emission scenarios, potentially shrinking the sea by 25%. Researchers call for a regional monitoring network and joint water management, but the five littoral states have yet to agree on binding targets. The Caspian's unique sturgeon population, source of 90% of global caviar, is particularly vulnerable.
What's Next
The Caspian Sea Commission is scheduled to meet in Baku in September 2026 to discuss a draft action plan. It remains unclear whether the five states will commit to mandatory water-use reductions or continue voluntary measures.
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Caspian Sea water level drops 15 cm annually, study finds
