Putin Escalates War and Hybrid Attacks as Europe and Ukraine Prepare Response
Reports from September 12–16 show a simultaneous escalation of Russian military and hybrid operations, cuts in regional payments for war deaths, and an intensification of diplomatic and nuclear contacts involving the West and Ukraine. According to The Economist, Putin fears for his life and is preparing to send another 300,000–400,000 people to the front. Against this backdrop, Finland is joining a French nuclear project, while Ukraine is preparing for October talks and a G20 meeting.
Sources
· 13В НАТО заявили о резком росте гибридных атак России: более 200 инцидентов за год
1Шесть российских регионов резко сократили выплаты за гибель на войне с Украиной
2Финляндия присоединилась к французской инициативе продвинутого ядерного сдерживания
3Послы ЕС не смогли согласовать продление санкций против России до вторника
4При атаке беспилотников на Одессу пострадали пять человек
5Буданов: Украина готовится к мирным переговорам с США и РФ в октябре
6Зеленский хочет встретиться с Путиным на саммите G20 в Майами
7Bloomberg: Путин перенёс срок захвата Донбасса на конец февраля
8The Economist: Путин опасается казни в случае поражения в Украине
9ISW: российские войска сосредотачиваются под Лиманом, несмотря на контратаки ВСУ
10Россия потеряла в августе 42 020 военных, захватив 90 кв. км, сообщает ISW
11The Telegraph: США предупредили о возможной провокации России против Польши
12Report: Russian Sabotage Operations In Europe Have Quadrupled Since 2023
13Key points
- NATO recorded more than 200 Russian hybrid attacks last year, not counting regular cyberattacks.
- Putin moved the deadline for fully seizing Donetsk Oblast to the end of February, for the 15th time since the war began.
- The Economist: Putin is preparing to send 300,000–400,000 people to the front and fears execution in the event of defeat.
- Finland has joined the French advanced nuclear deterrence initiative.
- Zelenskyy wants to meet Putin at the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026.
What happened
NATO reported a significant increase in the number, severity, and riskiness of hybrid attacks by Russia. More than 200 such incidents were recorded last year alone, not counting regular cyberattacks; the alliance's headquarters faces thousands of cyberattacks every month. On the same day, a drone attack on Odesa wounded at least five people and damaged residential neighborhoods in several districts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved the deadline for fully seizing Donetsk Oblast to the end of February, Bloomberg reports. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin has moved the deadline 15 times since the start of the war; Russian forces control 79.89% of the territory of Donetsk Oblast. Putin believes that ending the war without taking all of Donbas would put his life at risk: "They will hang me," he told associates.
Why it matters
At least six Russian regions have sharply reduced one-time payments to the families of those killed in the war with Ukraine. The cuts follow a record regional budget deficit of 1.5 trillion rubles last year and a 10% year-on-year decline in the recruitment of contract soldiers in the second quarter.
What changed
Finland announced on September 14 that it is joining the French advanced nuclear deterrence initiative. In the coming months, the two countries will set up a steering group on nuclear issues to implement the cooperation. EU ambassadors failed to agree on extending sanctions against Russia at a meeting on Monday; current sanctions expire on Tuesday.
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov said on September 12 that Ukraine is preparing for a new round of trilateral peace talks with the United States and Russia in October. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to arrange a personal meeting with Putin during the G20 summit in Miami, scheduled for December 2026. Zelenskyy said he will come if Putin comes.
What to watch
Trilateral peace talks involving Ukraine, the United States, and Russia are scheduled for October. The G20 summit in Miami is scheduled for December 2026. EU ambassadors plan to meet again to discuss extending sanctions against Russia. Finland and France will set up a steering group on nuclear issues in the coming months.
Previously
- ISW reported that Russian forces are concentrating near Lyman and are likely preparing for more active offensive operations.
- According to ISW estimates, in August the Russian army lost 42,020 troops killed and wounded while capturing about 90.35 square kilometers, whereas the Ukrainian Armed Forces recaptured at least 129.8 square kilometers.
- The Telegraph reported that the United States warned Poland about a possible Russian armed provocation on its territory.
- According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the scale of sabotage operations attributed to Russia in Europe has quadrupled since 2023.
What's Next
In October, a new round of trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia is expected; in December, a G20 summit in Miami is expected, where Zelenskyy hopes to meet Putin.
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