Kazakhstan's Tenge Strengthens, Cutting Budget Revenue by 146 Billion Tenge
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Kazakhstan's Finance Minister Madi Takiev reported a 146 billion tenge reduction in budget revenue due to the strengthening of the national currency. The tenge's exchange rate averaged 497.7 per dollar in Q1 2026, below the government's forecast of 540. Despite this, oil export duties increased budget income by 40.5 billion tenge.
Budget Revenue Impact
Finance Minister Madi Takiev stated that the strengthening of the tenge reduced budget revenues by 146 billion tenge. The tenge's average exchange rate was 497.7 per dollar in the first quarter of 2026, compared to the forecasted 540. This currency appreciation negatively affected the republican budget's income, despite overall state budget revenues reaching 6.4 trillion tenge, or 104.3% of the plan.
Oil Export Duties and Tax Revenue
Additional budget income from high oil prices amounted to 40.5 billion tenge due to export customs duties. Tax revenue increased by 20% compared to Q1 2025, adding over 1 trillion tenge. VAT on imported goods rose by 165 billion tenge, with an estimated 80 billion tenge from increased VAT rates. The volatile global oil market, influenced by Middle Eastern conflicts, saw average oil prices at 80.6 dollars per barrel.
Tenge Appreciation Factors
The National Bank attributed the recent strengthening of the tenge, which increased by nearly 9% to around 500 tenge per dollar, to heightened interest from foreign investors in assets from developing countries. This interest was partly driven by rising oil prices, positioning the Kazakh market as an attractive option.
What's Next
The Kazakh government will need to address the impact of currency fluctuations on budget planning. It remains uncertain how future oil price changes will affect national revenue.
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Kazakhstan's Tenge Strengthens, Cutting Budget Revenue by 146 Billion Tenge
