Amro flags Asia's vulnerability to AI demand swings despite solid growth

October 5, 2026 at 07:41 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office said Asian economies remain solid but are particularly sensitive to artificial intelligence-related demand. A potential AI slowdown could weigh heavily on the region, while renewed financial market volatility and protectionist measures add further risks.

Key Facts

Amro maintained its 2026 growth forecast for Asean+3 at 4.1% and lifted its 2027 projection to 4.1% from 4.0% in July.
Amro kept its 2026 Asean+3 inflation forecast at 1.6% but raised its 2027 projection to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The region accounted for two-thirds of the growth in global AI-related trade, according to Amro.
Amro's 2026 Financial Stability Report says the region is 'particularly exposed' to a potential AI correction because it is at the centre of global AI supply chains.

AI Exposure

The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office said Asian economies are particularly sensitive to artificial intelligence-related demand, with stronger-than-expected demand boosting exports and investment. A potential AI-related slowdown could weigh heavily on the region's economy, Amro said in its latest report. The region is 'particularly exposed' because it is at the centre of global AI supply chains and increasingly integrated into AI-related financial markets, according to Amro's 2026 Financial Stability Report. A disorderly correction could propagate through lower technology exports, portfolio losses, capital outflows, refinancing pressure on leveraged technology firms, and weaker investor confidence, the report said.

Growth and Inflation

Amro maintained its 2026 growth forecast for Asean+3 at 4.1% and lifted its 2027 projection to 4.1% from 4.0% in July. The region's exports have been a key driver of resilience, particularly in tech-heavy economies such as South Korea. Amro kept its 2026 Asean+3 inflation forecast at 1.6% but raised its 2027 projection to 1.7% from 1.6%. Higher energy and transport costs as well as possible El Nino-related food price pressures are expected to drive inflation next year, Amro said.

External Risks

Renewed financial market volatility and more protectionist measures could weigh on the regional economy, Amro said. Asia remains exposed to volatile energy prices given its reliance on imported oil, especially from the Middle East, with oil prices rising on supply concerns and regional tensions. El Nino poses a threat to crop production, bringing dry, hot conditions that risk pushing food prices higher. Energy supplies and industrial input disruptions have proven less severe than feared, limiting the drag on production, Amro chief economist Dong He said.