Democratic Senate candidates lead in five Republican-leaning states, NYT/Siena polls show

October 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM2 min

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Democratic Senate candidates hold leads or are tied in five Republican-leaning states one month before the midterm elections, according to New York Times/Siena College polls. The polls show Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, with Republicans holding a slim edge in Iowa and a dead heat in Kansas. The results suggest Democrats have multiple paths to retake the Senate majority despite a challenging map.

Key Facts

Democrats lead among likely voters in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, while Republicans hold a slim edge in Iowa and are tied in Kansas, according to New York Times/Siena College polls.
In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Republican nominee Ken Paxton by 6 percentage points.
In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola is ahead of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 7 percentage points.
In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a 3-point lead over Republican Senator Jon Husted.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a top Republican super PAC, pulled its money out of the North Carolina Senate race and plans to redirect resources to Kansas.

Polling Landscape

The New York Times/Siena College polls surveyed likely voters in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas. President Donald Trump's unpopularity, disapproval of the Iran war and frustration over gas prices and the cost of living are reshaping the electoral landscape, the polls found. Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats while holding their current seats in three battleground states to win Senate control. The Senate Leadership Fund's decision to pull out of North Carolina signals Republican concern about defending that seat.

State-by-State Results

In Texas, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 6 points, with independent voter Austin Vaughn, 30, saying he plans to support Talarico after voting for Trump in 2024. In Alaska, Mary Peltola's 7-point lead over Dan Sullivan aligns with her 8-point win in the August nonpartisan primary. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown holds a narrow 3-point edge over Jon Husted, with voters preferring Brown on nearly every issue in the poll. In Iowa, Republicans hold a slim edge, while in Kansas the race is neck-and-neck, a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.