Kazakhstan audit flags 41% of revenue may go to debt service in 2027

September 30, 2026 at 08:39 AM2 min

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Kazakhstan's Supreme Audit Chamber warns that debt repayment and servicing could exceed 41% of republican budget revenue in 2027, excluding National Fund transfers. The auditors also flag systemic problems in government budget planning and a 2.1 trillion tenge downward revision of 2026 tax revenue forecasts.

Key Facts

The Supreme Audit Chamber projects debt repayment and servicing could exceed 41% of republican budget revenue in 2027, excluding National Fund transfers.
The government cut its 2026 tax revenue forecast from 18.9 trillion tenge to 16.8 trillion tenge in August, a reduction of 2.1 trillion tenge.
The audit chamber says the scale of revisions to spending, National Fund transfers, and the non-oil deficit undermines confidence in medium-term planning.
Republican budget revenue as a share of GDP is forecast to fall from 10% in 2027 to 9.5% in 2029.

Macroeconomic Forecast Discrepancies

The audit chamber highlights divergences between government forecasts and assessments by the National Bank and international institutions. These discrepancies suggest a possible overestimation of the national economy's potential, creating risks of inflated budget parameters for 2027–2029. The same indicators for a single budget year changed noticeably across different socio-economic development forecasts. Spending, National Fund transfers, and the non-oil deficit were revised especially sharply. The audit chamber states that the scale of such revisions reduces trust in medium-term planning.

Revenue and National Fund Risks

The 2027 revenue forecast is built on a lowered 2026 revenue execution estimate, which overstates the growth rate of the budget revenue base in 2027–2029. Republican budget revenue as a share of GDP is projected to decline from 10% in 2027 to 9.5% in 2029. Economist Murat Temirkhanov links these figures partly to the limited effect of the tax reform. The audit chamber warns that without a strict link between spending and the non-oil deficit, the National Fund's savings function faces serious long-term risks. Spending for 2027 is set at the maximum level allowed by budget rules, leaving almost no room for additional increases if the economy deteriorates.