Apollo and Bain analyses question AI revenue assumptions behind Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs

September 29, 2026 at 09:31 PM2 min

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Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk says Wall Street analysts' cash-flow forecasts for tech and its customers are internally inconsistent, with tech expected to add $1.2 trillion in operating cash flow by 2028 while other sectors see much less. Bain Capital estimates a $4.2 trillion gap between AI investment needs and expected AI market revenue. Both analyses raise questions about the revenue math underpinning planned IPOs by Anthropic and OpenAI.

Key Facts

Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing, and infrastructure costs in the coming years after posting a net loss of $42 billion in 2025.
Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk says Wall Street analysts expect tech sector operating cash flow to more than double to roughly $2.4 trillion by 2028, an increase of over $1.2 trillion.
Bain Capital estimates sustaining AI investment would require an AI market approaching $6 trillion annually, while the consumer and enterprise AI market will likely total $1.2 trillion to $1.8 trillion, leaving a $4.2 trillion gap.
Successful IPOs for both Anthropic and OpenAI are contingent on optimism that revenue from their clients will eventually outpace their spending.

Apollo's Cash Flow Contradiction

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo, argues that Wall Street equity analysts work in sector silos, producing internally inconsistent forecasts when aggregated. Analysts covering tech expect the sector's operating cash flow to more than double to roughly $2.4 trillion by 2028, an increase of over $1.2 trillion. Meanwhile, analysts covering other S&P 500 sectors—tech's customers—expect those companies to add much less operating cash flow. Sløk concludes that either tech's customers will generate far more cash than their analysts expect, or tech's cash flow forecasts are too optimistic, raising the question of who will pay for AI services.

Bain's Funding Gap Estimate

A report from Bain Capital, led by Silicon Valley Partner David Crawford, predicts a large funding gap between AI build-out outlays and expected revenue. Assuming capital expenditures amount to about 25% of industry revenue, sustaining investment would require an AI market approaching $6 trillion annually. Bain estimates the consumer and enterprise AI market will likely total $1.2 trillion to $1.8 trillion, leaving a $4.2 trillion gap.