Satellite data show rising vegetation instability across 82% of drylands
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A study in Nature Climate Change finds that year-to-year variability in vegetation cover has increased across 82% of dryland areas from 1982 to 2020. The trend, based on satellite leaf area index data, suggests greater swings between wet and dry years. Thirteen leading global vegetation models failed to reproduce the observed increase in variability.
Key Facts
- The study analyzed satellite leaf area index data from 1982 to 2020.
- Year-to-year variability in vegetation cover increased across 82% of dryland areas.
- Thirteen leading global vegetation models failed to capture the observed rise in variability.
- The findings were published in Nature Climate Change.
Satellite Analysis
Researchers analyzed satellite leaf area index data spanning 1982 to 2020. The leaf area index measures total leaf area relative to the ground area on which plants grow. The analysis covered dryland regions, where water availability strongly limits vegetation growth.
Model Limitations
The authors tested 13 leading global vegetation models against the satellite observations. None of the models reproduced the observed increase in year-to-year variability. This mismatch suggests current models may underestimate the sensitivity of dryland vegetation to climate fluctuations.
Ecological Implications
Greater variability between wet and dry years could complicate rain-fed agriculture and pastoral livestock systems. Predicting crop yields and pasture forage availability may become more difficult. The authors note that sharp swings in vegetation productivity could be an early indicator of larger ecological shifts.
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