Venezuela oil revival hinges on $100 billion investment, Rystad says

September 28, 2026 at 04:00 AM2 min

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Venezuela's oil revival under U.S.-led restructuring could require $100 billion in investment, according to Rystad Energy. The figure represents a long-term funding requirement, not committed near-term capital. The country currently produces 1.25 million barrels per day and has only two active drilling rigs.

Key Facts

NABEP received 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields with proven reserves of approximately 65 billion barrels.
Venezuela's current oil production is about 1.25 million barrels per day, with projections of 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030.
As of August, Venezuela had just two active drilling rigs, according to Baker Hughes data.
Rystad Energy's upside scenario sees production jumping to around 2.58 million bpd by 2035.

The NABEP Deal

The White House announced last month a deal with privately held North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), calling it "the biggest oil deal in world history." The deal could involve $100 billion in investment in new oil infrastructure after the new interim Venezuelan authorities granted NABEP 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields with proven reserves of approximately 65 billion barrels. NABEP, led by Venezuela-born businessman Alejandro Betancourt, says it is looking "to rapidly expand its operations in Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt with the near-term goal of increasing production to more than 1 million barrels of oil per day."

Investment Realities

Rystad Energy said NABEP's $100 billion figure represents a long-term funding requirement, not committed near-term capital, and the company has not disclosed a detailed financing structure. Rystad Energy favors investment programs tied to established operators and defined assets over larger ambitions requiring substantial external capital. To reach Rystad's projections of 1.6 million bpd output by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030, activity would need to reach around 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030.

Geopolitical Shift

The U.S.-led restructuring of the sector kicked out Russian and Chinese companies from previously awarded concessions. Legacy producers and service providers have accelerated deal-making in Venezuela in recent weeks, encouraged by the changed geopolitical orientation and President Trump's stated goal to expel adversaries Russia and China out of the Western Hemisphere. Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas, at Rystad Energy, said a number of newly identified opportunities were previously associated with Russian and Chinese operators, and further restructuring of some legacy positions remains possible as the new contractual framework develops.