Ukraine enters most difficult period of conflict, EBRD economist says

September 27, 2026 at 04:41 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Ukraine is entering the most difficult economic period of the conflict with Russia, EBRD chief regional economist Dimitar Bogov told The New York Times. The EBRD cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine from 2.2% to 1.5%, while the economy ministry estimates cumulative economic damage at about $10 billion by end-2026.

Key Facts

The EBRD lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine from 2.2% to 1.5%.
Ukraine's economy ministry estimates cumulative economic damage from 2022 to end-2026 at about $10 billion.
Ukraine's international reserves rose from $29.1 billion to $48.7 billion during the conflict, according to NYT data.
Ukraine's 2026 budget was adopted with a deficit of about 1.9 trillion hryvnia, or $47.5 billion.
The EU agreed on a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, with €60 billion for defense and €30 billion for budget and economic support.

Economic Damage Assessment

Ukraine's economy ministry estimates cumulative economic damage from 2022 to end-2026 at about $10 billion. A significant share of that damage stems from lower sales, halted enterprises, and logistics disruptions, The New York Times reported. Exports of Ukrainian grain, steel, and iron ore have fallen by about a third since the start of the conflict. The drop in export revenue was offset by external aid, with international reserves rising from $29.1 billion to $48.7 billion.

Fiscal Pressures and Financing

Kyiv previously estimated a $27 billion shortfall for defense spending, and Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky called the public finance situation close to critical. Ukraine's 2026 budget was adopted with a deficit of about 1.9 trillion hryvnia, or $47.5 billion. The Ukrainian finance ministry estimates external financing needs at nearly $146 billion for 2026–2029. The EU agreed on a €90 billion loan, with €60 billion for defense and €30 billion for budget and economic support. European Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis said Ukraine's 2026 budget needs are largely covered and may be less acute than Kyiv claims.

Russian Response

Russia's defense ministry says strikes target only military and energy facilities in Ukraine and related infrastructure. President Vladimir Putin said intensified Russian strikes respond to Ukrainian actions against civilian industrial and logistics sites in Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy and civilian infrastructure terrorism.