Ethiopia's new rebel alliance faces an old problem

September 25, 2026 at 09:10 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

A new armed alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was announced on September 20, bringing together the TPLF, Amhara Fano, OLA and four other movements. The alliance aims to establish an inclusive transition, but Oromo elites remain divided over its participation. The announcement follows months of coordination meetings held in the presence of Eritrean and Sudanese military representatives.

Key Facts

The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival was announced on September 20, uniting seven armed groups including the TPLF, Amhara Fano National Movement, and Oromo Liberation Army.
The alliance aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transition.
Coordination meetings among the groups were held over several months in the presence of military and security representatives from Eritrea and Sudan.
Three days after the announcement, TPLF forces allied with the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front advanced into several districts in Zone 2 with little resistance.
The newly elected parliament is due to open on October 5, when a new federal government will be constituted.

Alliance Formation

The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, announced on September 20, brings together the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and four movements from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. The alliance aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transition. Despite the OLA’s participation, Oromo organisations and elites are divided in their support for the alliance. Three of the seven organisations – the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (ANURF) – have particular strategic importance because all three are in northern Ethiopia, which borders Eritrea, allowing continuous logistical support from there.

Military Escalation

Three days after the announcement, TPLF forces, allied with the ANURF, advanced into several districts in Zone 2 with little resistance. ANURF is led by Ibrahim Osman Aliyu, known as Haji Ibrahim, a respected figure from Berhale in Zone 2 and a relative of Ethiopia’s defence minister, Aisha Mohammed. He defected to Eritrea last year with a contingent of Afar Special Forces and local forces.

Political Context

The civil war in parts of Oromia has raged since Abiy took power in 2018, while the conflict in the Amhara region has raged since 2023. In Tigray, the Pretoria agreement was never fully implemented, and the region has been under siege since a faction of the TPLF took power and escalated its confrontation with the federal government. The government formed the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission in 2021, which concluded a national conference of about 4,000 participants in August, despite the absence of armed groups and other key opposition organisations. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was in Djibouti on September 24 for the launch of the Ethiopia-Djibouti petroleum infrastructure project. The newly elected parliament is due to open on October 5, when a new federal government will be constituted.