Gold Steadies Near $4,290 as Oil Surge and US Data Fuel Fed Rate-Hike Bets

September 24, 2026 at 05:12 AM2 min

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Gold held near $4,290 an ounce after falling 1.7% the previous day, pressured by rising oil prices and stronger-than-expected US economic data. The S&P Global flash US composite PMI climbed to 58.4 in September, the highest since July 2021, while five-year Treasury yields topped 5% for the first time since 2007. Swap markets now price at least three Fed rate hikes by April, up from earlier this week.

Key Facts

Gold traded around $4,290 an ounce after falling 1.7% the previous day.
The S&P Global flash US composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, the highest since July 2021.
Five-year US Treasury yields moved above 5% for the first time since 2007.
Swap markets priced at least three Fed rate hikes by April next year, up from earlier this week.
TD Securities senior commodity strategist Ryan McKay said gold could rise above $5,000 an ounce by 2027 as investor and central bank demand recovers.

Oil and Iran Tensions

Oil prices rose after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the United Nations that Iran would not allow freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while sanctions and a US blockade remain in place. Pezeshkian said Iran is ready to negotiate but will not respond to threats, and while it is not interested in building an atomic weapon, it will not give up the right to develop nuclear technology for economic reasons. His remarks came a day after President Donald Trump said his officials had "very good" talks with Iranian envoys on the sidelines of the UN summit.

Fed Rate Outlook

Fed Governor Michael Barr said further rate increases are likely needed to return inflation to the central bank's 2% target. His comments followed a string of similar warnings from fellow policymakers in recent days that price pressures appear to be persistent. Swap markets are currently pricing in at least three hikes by April next year, an increase from earlier this week. The dollar index traded above 101, near its highest level in almost two months.

Market Impact

Losses in the US Treasuries market intensified on stronger-than-forecast economic data and a weak debt auction, reflecting the view that inflation is likely to remain sticky. Treasury yields across most maturities hit the highest in almost two decades. Gold has been dictated by the Fed's rate outlook in recent weeks as investors gauge whether surging energy prices will keep inflationary pressure strong enough to prompt further increases in rates. Bullion is down around a fifth since the US-Iran war erupted in late February.