Apollo projects Big Tech operating cash flow to triple to $2 trillion by 2030

September 23, 2026 at 03:09 PM2 min

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Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk projects that operating cash flow at Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft will triple from $600 billion in 2025 to roughly $2 trillion by 2030. The forecast underpins the AI investment boom that has driven one-fifth of US economic growth in 2026. The projection comes even as Alphabet reported its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004.

Key Facts

The four hyperscalers are expected to spend roughly $800 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, ten times their 2019 level, according to Goldman Sachs.
Hyperscalers are expected to issue $250 billion in global investment-grade debt by the end of 2026.
Alphabet reported its first quarter of negative free cash flow since going public in 2004.
The Nasdaq Composite surged 2.3% to a record close on Monday, while the S&P 500 gained 1.5%.
Thirty S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week lows on Monday, versus only seven that reached 52-week highs.

AI Investment Boom

AI-related investments have accounted for roughly one-fifth of US economic growth so far in 2026. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are projected to spend about $800 billion in capital expenditures this year, a tenfold increase from 2019, per Goldman Sachs. Financing for the AI spending race has shifted increasingly to the debt market, with hyperscalers expected to issue $250 billion in global investment-grade debt by the end of 2026. Alphabet posted its first negative free cash flow quarter since its 2004 IPO in July.

Cash Flow Projections

Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk projects operating cash flow for the four hyperscalers will grow from $600 billion in 2025 to roughly $2 trillion in 2030. Sløk warned that if the cash flow expansion fails to materialize, the AI trade could weaken, credit spreads widen, capex plans get cut, and US GDP growth slow. Morgan Stanley analysts led by chief equity strategist Michael Wilson wrote to clients on Monday that the outlook for AI capex is strong.

Market Concentration Risk

The Nasdaq Composite surged 2.3% to an all-time high on Monday, driven by gains in Meta, Arm, and Intel, while the S&P 500 rose 1.5%. Beneath the index rally, market breadth was sharply negative: 30 S&P 500 stocks touched 52-week lows versus only 7 reaching 52-week highs.