Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro deadlocked in Brazil election polls

September 22, 2026 at 08:03 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in the latest polls ahead of the October 4 election. A Quaest poll shows Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 41% in a simulated runoff, while a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll puts Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%. The first round is less than two weeks away, with a runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate wins over 50%.

Key Facts

A Quaest poll released on Monday shows Flavio Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 41% in a simulated runoff.
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in a potential runoff.
The first round of Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes.
An earlier Quaest poll on August 5 had Lula ahead by five points, 44% to 39%.
Lula met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Monday and discussed rising cost of living issues.

Polling Deadlock

Two new polls released on Monday show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied in simulated runoffs. The Quaest poll gives Bolsonaro 42% support versus 41% for Lula. The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll shows Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%. These numbers mark a narrowing from the August 5 Quaest poll, which had Lula ahead 44% to 39%.

Election Mechanics

Brazil's first round of voting takes place on October 4. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the top two advance to a runoff on October 25. Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, while Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible for office after Brazil's top electoral court found he abused power.

US Pressure

Lula launched his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers' Party convention in Sao Paulo. He cast himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty amid pressure from the US administration. The US imposed two fresh rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products in July. Lula denounced the tariffs as an attempt to influence the elections through economic pressure. Lula is in New York preparing to address the United Nations General Assembly.