Trump's AI push tied to economy's dependence on tech spending

September 18, 2026 at 09:28 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

President Donald Trump is at odds with AI executives over unchecked AI development, driven by concerns about the US economy's heavy reliance on AI spending. ING estimates AI and data center investments account for a third of 2026 economic growth, while Goldman Sachs says AI drives half of S&P 500 profit growth. Fitch Ratings warns an AI downturn could trigger a recession with GDP contracting 1.5% next year.

Key Facts

ING estimates AI and data center investments account for a third of year-over-year US economic growth in 2026.
Goldman Sachs' chief equity strategist told CNBC that AI investment is driving half of all profit growth in the S&P 500.
Fitch Ratings ran a scenario where US stock prices fall 35% over six months, leading to a recession with GDP contracting 1.5% next year.
Olu Sonola, US head of economic research at Fitch Ratings, told CNN that if AI spending stops, the US could face stagnation or contraction for at least a year.
A 'Stop the AI Race' demonstration took place in San Francisco on September 17, with protesters calling for a slowdown in advanced AI development.

Economic Dependence on AI

ING estimates tech investments dominated by AI and data centers account for a third of year-over-year economic growth in 2026. Goldman Sachs' chief equity strategist recently told CNBC that AI investment is driving half of all the profit growth in the S&P 500. Economists note that absent the AI frenzy, the US economy would be in a much weaker position, possibly even in a recession. Olu Sonola, US head of economic research at Fitch Ratings, told CNN that if the music stops in a big way, the US could end up in stagnation or outright contraction for at least a year.

Wealth Effect and Consumer Spending

Sonola said the wealth effect is the icing on the cake: people with stock portfolios exposed to AI are feeling flush and spending lavishly. This spending helps prop up America's consumer-centric economy, and if the money train stalls, the effects will not be contained to tech investors on Wall Street.

Fitch Recession Scenario

Last week, Fitch Ratings ran a scenario imagining the economic outcome of an AI-related downturn, with US stock prices falling around 35% over six months. The result was that the economy would go into recession, with GDP contracting 1.5% next year.