Fed rate decision and Warsh press conference set to dominate markets Wednesday

September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest rate decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference from Chairman Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markets are pricing in an 86% probability of a rate hike after core CPI came in slightly hotter than expected on Friday. The decision and Warsh's remarks will set the tone for the week, with manufacturing data due Tuesday and Friday.

Key Facts

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, with a press conference by Chairman Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Market bets on a Fed rate hike have risen to roughly 86% after core CPI came in slightly hotter than expected on a monthly basis.
JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli said core PCE inflation has been above 3% every month this year and has made little recent progress toward 2%.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% last week, while the Dow and Nasdaq each rose 0.9%.
Empire manufacturing data will be released Tuesday, and Federal Reserve industrial production and manufacturing production data will be released Friday.

The Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest rate decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference from Chairman Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET. Bets that the Fed will issue a rate hike have spiked to roughly 86% after consumer pricing data came in largely in line with estimates on Friday, with core CPI slightly hotter than expected on a monthly basis. JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli said core PCE inflation has been above 3% every month this year and has made little recent progress heading towards 2%. Warsh took a much more forceful approach at his first Jackson Hole symposium on the Fed's role in taming inflation than he had previously, which pushed up bets that the Fed will hike.

Market Impact

Rising yields and oil prices weighed on the stock market, which welcomed the higher-than-expected inflation report on Friday that signaled a coming Fed hike. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Dow and Nasdaq rose 0.9%. Last time, Warsh's comments sent Treasury yields spiking as markets read an abdication of responsibility, so much attention will be paid to how the Fed chair addresses inflation. A hike would certainly put some of those concerns to rest.

Economic Calendar

Elsewhere on the economic calendar is a collection of manufacturing data, set to give investors another view into how the AI infrastructure boom is reshaping an increasingly physical economy. Empire manufacturing numbers will be released on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve's industrial production and manufacturing production data on Friday.