Tajikistan projects fuel imports to reach 1.55 million tonnes in 2027

September 12, 2026 at 01:05 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Tajikistan's fuel imports are projected to rise to 1.55 million tonnes in 2027, up 7.8% from the expected 2026 level. The import bill is forecast at about $1.12 billion, with diesel and gasoline accounting for most of the volume. The increase comes as Dushanbe seeks alternatives to Russian supplies after summer 2026 disruptions.

Key Facts

Tajikistan's fuel imports are projected to reach 1.55 million tonnes in 2027, a 7.8% increase over the expected 2026 level.
The 2027 import bill is forecast at about $1.12 billion, including $500 million for 700,000 tonnes of diesel and $400 million for 530,000 tonnes of gasoline.
Russia supplied 91.1% of Tajikistan's 599,500 tonnes of fuel imports in January–June 2026.
In July 2026, Tajikistan's combined gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel imports from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan tripled to 34,000 tonnes.

Import Forecast

Tajikistan's fuel imports are projected to reach 1.55 million tonnes in 2027, up 7.8% from the expected 2026 level. The import bill is forecast at about $1.12 billion, with diesel and gasoline accounting for most of the volume. The plan includes 700,000 tonnes of diesel worth about $500 million and 530,000 tonnes of gasoline worth $400 million. Tajikistan also expects to import 312 million cubic metres of natural gas and 333,000 tonnes of liquefied gas. The forecast sees further growth to 1.67 million tonnes in 2028 and 1.77 million tonnes in 2029.

Russian Supply Dependence

Russia remains Tajikistan's dominant fuel supplier, providing 91.1% of the 599,500 tonnes imported in January–June 2026. Russian fuel enters Tajikistan under a 2013 intergovernmental agreement that exempts it from export duties within an annually agreed volume. The agreed volume for 2026 is about 1.1 million tonnes. Supply disruptions in summer 2026 caused price increases and diesel shortages at some filling stations.

Alternative Suppliers

After the summer 2026 disruptions, Tajikistan increased fuel purchases from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. In July 2026, combined imports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from these three countries tripled to 34,000 tonnes. The volume remains insufficient to quickly replace Russian supplies.