Kazakhstan SME decline reflects tax status shift, not business closures

September 12, 2026 at 01:07 PM2 min

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Kazakhstan's active small and medium enterprise count fell by 200,000 in the first half of 2026, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. Economist Amanzhan Zhamalov attributes the decline largely to sole proprietors switching to a special tax regime for the self-employed under the new Tax Code. Total registered entities including the self-employed rose 20.4% to 2.939 million over the same period.

Key Facts

Active SME entities in Kazakhstan fell from 2.175 million on January 1, 2026, to 1.975 million on July 1, a drop of 200,000.
The Ministry of National Economy reports total entities including the self-employed rose 20.4% to 2.939 million in the first half of 2026.
The National Bank's business activity index stood at 49.8 in July 2026, with manufacturing at 52.2 and trade at 46.6.
Halyk Bank's Halyk Business Index reached 103.4% for January-July 2026, indicating slow expansion.

Statistical Shift

The Bureau of National Statistics recorded 2.175 million active SME entities on January 1, 2026, and 1.975 million on July 1. The bureau attributes much of the 200,000 decline to individual entrepreneurs moving to the special tax regime for the self-employed under the new Tax Code. Economist Amanzhan Zhamalov noted that a former sole proprietor may continue working and paying taxes under a different status. The Ministry of National Economy counted 2.939 million total entities including the self-employed by mid-2026, up from 2.440 million.

Business Activity Indicators

The National Bank's monthly business activity index was 49.8 in July 2026, just below the 50-point threshold separating growth from contraction. Manufacturing scored 52.2, construction 51.8, and services 50.4, while trade and mining remained in contraction at 46.6 and 47.2. Halyk Bank's Halyk Business Index, based on bank transactions, reached 103.4% for January-July 2026. Zhamalov said these indicators answer only whether activity is expanding or contracting, not how specific businesses fare after the reform.