IMF projects global growth near 3% in 2026, warns risks remain high

September 10, 2026 at 10:29 PM2 min

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The IMF said on Thursday the global economy is on track to expand by about 3% in 2026, despite the energy shock from the Middle East war. Spokesperson Julie Kozack said oil and gas prices remain elevated and global debt pressures are mounting. The Fund will release an updated forecast at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok from October 12 to 18.

Key Facts

The IMF expects global output to expand by about 3% in 2026, unchanged from its July forecast.
Global public debt is nearly 100% of GDP, the highest level since World War Two.
The IMF will release an updated forecast during the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok from October 12 to 18.
Oil and gas prices remain elevated and the energy shock from the Middle East war is not over, according to IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack.

Growth Outlook

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said the global economy has been resilient despite six months of war in the Middle East. The Fund remains on track for world growth of around 3% in 2026, but uncertainty continues to remain high. The July forecast of 3.0% assumed the war would wind down in mid-July, yet Iran and the United States have escalated attacks and the war has widened with increased military activity in Yemen. The IMF will release an updated forecast during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok from October 12 to 18.

Risk Factors

Kozack said the global economy is being pulled in opposite directions by the negative energy supply shock and the positive demand shock from the AI-led technology cycle. Many countries need to restock their oil and gas reserves, and energy demand is set to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. Global public debt is already at nearly 100% of GDP, the highest level since World War Two, and is set to rise further. Liquidity problems are building in developing countries, including in Africa, partly due to a reduction in bilateral assistance.