US Treasury to announce expanded bond buyback size on Sept 10

September 9, 2026 at 12:17 AM3 min

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The US Treasury is set to announce on Wednesday the size of its expanded bond buyback operation for the following day, the first such release since the Aug. 19 surprise move. The announcement will come just hours before the department's next sale of 10-year notes and a day before a 30-year bond auction. Wall Street dealers are on edge as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has declined to tip how big the Sept. 10 buyback will be.

Key Facts

The Treasury Department is expected to announce on Wednesday the size of the next day's operation to repurchase outstanding 10-year to 20-year securities.
The Aug. 19 announcement said the Treasury would "at least double" the $2 billion buyback sizes penciled in two weeks before.
Morgan Stanley calculates $10 billion as a practical cap for the buyback size.
Wrightson ICAP senior economist Lou Crandall sees something in the $5 to $6 billion range as a plausible starting point.
The announcement is due just hours before the department's next sale of 10-year notes and a day before a 30-year bond auction.

The Buyback Announcement

The Treasury Department is expected to announce on Wednesday the size of the next day's operation to repurchase outstanding 10-year to 20-year securities. Past precedent indicates the announcement would be at 11 a.m. in Washington. It will be the first such release since the Treasury shocked market participants Aug. 19 by saying it would "at least double" the $2 billion sizes it had penciled in just two weeks before. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly declined to tip how big the Sept. 10 buyback will be.

Market Expectations

Bessent's public remarks have helped fan expectations among many that the buyback will exceed $4 billion. On Tuesday, he characterized the initiative as aimed at cooling "this fever that was building" in the market, in an apparent reference to a selloff that last month sent longer-dated yields to the highest in years. With 10-year yields, which are key for US mortgage rates, now even higher than last month's levels, stakes are high. Coming in at just $4 billion could prove a disappointment to investors, adding to selling pressure in the world's biggest bond market. But opting for a giant total — Morgan Stanley calculates $10 billion as a practical cap — could set a new baseline for subsequent longer-dated buybacks, with the next one due in two weeks.

Analyst Views

A larger increase "would be an admission that the Treasury hadn't thought through its hasty August 19 announcement in the first place," Lou Crandall, a senior economist at Wrightson ICAP, wrote in a note to clients. Crandall sees something in the $5 to $6 billion range as a plausible starting point, while acknowledging even larger increases wouldn't be out of character given the rapid shifts in the Treasury's strategy during the past few weeks. Amplifying the immediate consequences of Wednesday's news: it's due to come just hours before the department's next sale of 10-year notes, and a day before a 30-year bond auction. The Treasury declined to respond to a request for comment on its upcoming announcement.