Kazakhstan annual inflation slows to 9.8% in August, first single-digit reading since February 2025
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Kazakhstan's annual inflation slowed to 9.8% in August from 10.2% in July, returning to single digits for the first time since February 2025. Monthly inflation held at 0.6%, with seasonal food prices falling 0.1% month-on-month. The slowdown comes ahead of the National Bank's September 4 rate decision after July's cut to 16.75%.
Key Facts
- Annual inflation in Kazakhstan slowed to 9.8% in August from 10.2% in July, the first single-digit reading since February 2025.
- Monthly inflation held at 0.6% in August, unchanged from July and down from 1.0% in August 2025.
- Food prices fell 0.1% month-on-month in August, while non-food goods rose 0.8% and paid services rose 1.2%.
- Potatoes fell 12.3% month-on-month, sweet peppers 11.9%, cabbage 9.7%, grapes 8.0%, onions 7.7%, and apples 5.1%.
- The National Bureau of Economic Research had forecast August annual inflation at 9.9%, missing the actual 9.8% by 0.1 percentage points.
Inflation Breakdown
Annual food inflation slowed to 9.5% in August from 10.1% in July, while non-food inflation eased to 11.4% from 11.7% and services inflation to 8.9% from 9.2%. Month-on-month, food prices fell 0.1% after rising 0.4% in July, driven by seasonal supply of vegetables and fruits. Non-food prices rose 0.8% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.7% in July, and services prices rose 1.2%, up from 0.7%. The Bureau of National Statistics recorded price declines for potatoes (12.3%), sweet peppers (11.9%), cabbage (9.7%), grapes (8.0%), onions (7.7%), and apples (5.1%). Used passenger cars fell 5.3% month-on-month, tablets 5.0%, and medical masks 2.9%.
Policy Implications
The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate to 16.75% in July and is scheduled to meet on September 4. The real base rate, calculated as the nominal rate minus inflation, rose to 6.95% in August. The National Bureau of Economic Research had forecast August annual inflation at 9.9% and monthly inflation at 0.6%, with the annual figure missing by 0.1 percentage points. The bureau's component forecasts missed by larger margins: food inflation came in at 9.5% versus a 9.9% forecast, non-food at 11.4% versus 11.2%, and services at 8.9% versus 8.6%. The Ministry of Economy attributed the slowdown in socially significant food prices to an expanded list of controlled goods, trade margin controls, and measures against intermediaries.