US CPI data and Oracle earnings to test Fed rate path this week

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Investors await Friday's US Consumer Price Index report and Thursday's Oracle earnings in a holiday-shortened week. The data will shape whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September after August payrolls beat expectations. Producer Price Index data on Thursday will offer a wholesaler-side preview.
Key Facts
- The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far exceeding Wall Street expectations of 55,000.
- Bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in September were split roughly 50/50 heading into Friday morning.
- Oracle, Adobe, and Macy's are all scheduled to report earnings on Thursday.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has made price stability the singular focus of the central bank.
Inflation Data
The Consumer Price Index report on Friday will give the Federal Open Market Committee a read on inflation that has held above target for five years. Producer Price Index data on Thursday will offer a preview from the wholesaler side of the pricing equation. Bill Adams, chief economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, said the August CPI and PPI reports have the power to swing the Fed's decision between a hike and a hold. Chairman Kevin Warsh said at the Jackson Hole symposium that the Fed's 2% inflation target is fixed and it is the Fed's duty to rein in hot inflation.
Corporate Earnings
Oracle's quarterly results on Thursday will act as a bellwether on the state of AI financing given the company's turn toward debt. Adobe is also set to report on Thursday, coming off a fresh CEO change. Macy's results on Thursday will provide a read on the state of the consumer.