OPEC+ to review 2027 quota baselines, pausing October output hike

September 6, 2026 at 02:30 PM1 min

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OPEC+ is expected to leave October oil production parameters unchanged at its September 6 meeting. The group will prioritize revising baseline production levels for 2027 quotas, potentially pausing further supply increases. The decision comes as Iran-related tensions and Hormuz Strait disruptions weigh on the market.

Key Facts

OPEC+ is expected to keep October oil production parameters unchanged at its September 6 meeting.
The group will prioritize revising baseline production levels for 2027 quota calculations, potentially pausing further supply increases.
In August, OPEC+ agreed to raise September production, completing the phase-out of 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts introduced in 2023.
A separate restriction package covering most of the 21 member countries remains in effect until the end of 2026.
Iran-related conflict and disruptions to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are reducing the market impact of OPEC+ decisions.

October Output Decision

OPEC+ is expected to leave October oil production parameters unchanged at its September 6 meeting. The group will prioritize revising baseline production levels for 2027 quota calculations, potentially pausing further supply increases. In August, OPEC+ agreed to raise September production, completing the phase-out of 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts introduced in 2023. Actual output from several members remains below their established targets.

Market Pressures

Iran-related conflict and disruptions to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are reducing the market impact of OPEC+ decisions. A separate restriction package covering most of the 21 member countries remains in effect until the end of 2026. Discussion of new baseline levels will take place later this year, and the alliance may refrain from further production increases in the fourth quarter.