US Midwest Heat Drives Corn Futures Above $5 a Bushel

September 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM2 min

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Punishing heat across the US Midwest pushed corn futures above $5 a bushel, the highest since 2023, after a 15% rally since late July. The surge is lifting bids at grain terminals and letting growers hedge profitably, with USDA projecting a 6.1% rise in 2026 crop cash receipts. Farmers remain cautious about big investments despite the improved outlook.

Key Facts

Corn futures rose about 15% since the end of July and crossed $5 a bushel, the highest level since 2023.
USDA projects farmers' cash receipts from crops will climb 6.1% year-over-year in 2026.
Net-bullish holdings in corn futures reached the highest on record, according to data issued Friday.
Iowa farmer Dave Walton said he has been aggressively selling into the rally and expects profitable conditions across his operation.

Heat-Driven Price Rally

Punishing temperatures swept across the US Midwest this week, triggering another round of heat advisories after weeks of sizzling weather. The heat's threat to yields helped corn futures jump about 15% since the end of July, sending prices above the critical $5-a-bushel threshold to reach the highest levels since 2023. Those gains ripple through the farm economy, underpinning higher bids at grain terminals and elevators while allowing growers to use futures contracts to hedge their risks.

Farm Economy Rebound

Higher grain prices have raised hopes that an elusive rebound in the American farm economy is finally taking hold. Fresh data from the US Department of Agriculture show that farmers' cash receipts from crops are projected to climb 6.1% year-over-year in 2026. Investors are wagering on a continued rally, with the net-bullish holding in corn futures reaching the highest on record, data issued Friday show. But after years of depressed prices and rising costs, growers still want to see more evidence of sustained improvement before they start making big investments.

Farmer Caution

Iowa farmer Dave Walton sees the rally as a game changer, saying he has been fairly aggressive selling into it and expects black ink across the board. At this week's Farm Progress Show in Iowa, Walton perused CNH Industrial NV's New Holland brand's latest tractors and crop sprayers as he searched for ways to improve his operation producing soybeans, corn and wheat. Timely rains in eastern Iowa have him expecting a pretty good bean crop and an average to below-average corn harvest. Still, he wants at least another year of solid profitability before spending on big-ticket items like machinery, saying there is very little he can afford and he is window shopping.