DR Congo uses mobile data to predict Ebola spread for first time

September 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM2 min

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The Democratic Republic of Congo is using anonymized mobile phone data to track population movements and predict where the Ebola outbreak may spread. The analysis, conducted by Swedish nonprofit Flowminder using data from Vodacom, identified high-risk areas before cases appeared. The outbreak has infected more than 6,250 people and killed over 3,039 since May 15.

Key Facts

Flowminder, a Swedish nonprofit, is analyzing aggregated mobile connection data provided free by Vodacom, the DRC's largest operator.
The first analysis, published in June, covered Bunia, Mungwalu, and Rwampara in Ituri province, where the outbreak is believed to have started.
By the end of June, Ebola cases had been recorded in all ten destinations with the highest traveler flows from the initial outbreak zones.
The analysis showed a high risk of virus spread to Kisangani, a major transport hub on the Congo River, before any cases were detected there.
As of late June, the WHO estimated a 70% probability of an Ebola case being identified in Kinshasa by the end of September.

Mobile Data Analysis

Flowminder is using aggregated data on mobile phone connections to base stations to track population movements. Vodacom, the DRC's largest mobile operator, is providing the data free of charge. The data does not contain information that could identify individual subscribers. The first analysis, published in June, focused on Bunia, Mungwalu, and Rwampara in Ituri province. Researchers tracked where people from these areas traveled, and by the end of June, Ebola cases had been recorded in all ten destinations with the highest traveler flows.

Kisangani Risk Assessment

Special attention was given to Kisangani, a major transport hub on the Congo River. The analysis showed a high risk of virus spread to Kisangani before any cases were detected there. Anti-epidemic measures in the city were subsequently strengthened. The study also revealed close connections between Kisangani and Kinshasa, as well as settlements along the Congo River. Of the 50 territories most connected to Kisangani, 15 are in Kinshasa province.

Outbreak Scale

According to the DRC government, more than 6,250 people have been infected with Ebola since the outbreak was declared on May 15. Over 3,039 people have died from the disease. The WHO has called the current outbreak the fastest-developing in history. In late June, the WHO estimated a 70% probability of an Ebola case being identified in Kinshasa by the end of September.