Black Sea export disruptions and drought drive wheat prices to three-year high

August 31, 2026 at 07:42 PM2 min

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Wheat prices have risen sharply as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupts Black Sea exports and droughts cut production in key regions. Chicago wheat futures hit a three-year high on Friday before easing to $7.79 per bushel on Monday. Russia's Rostov region declared a state of emergency after port closures caused a pile-up of agricultural products.

Key Facts

Chicago wheat futures hit a three-year high on Friday before easing 0.54 percent to $7.79 per bushel on Monday.
Russia's Rostov region declared a state of emergency on Friday after port closures and navigation disruptions caused a pile-up of agricultural products.
Ukraine's Ministry of Infrastructure reported 35 Russian attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea, and 67 on port facilities in July, compared with 14 vessel strikes in all of 2025.
Kyiv's agricultural minister said recent Russian air attacks destroyed around 90 percent of retailers' food logistics.
South Africa's Swartland region, which produces about 20 percent of the country's wheat, faces a reduced harvest due to rising temperatures and lack of rain.

Black Sea Export Disruptions

Over the past month, strikes on ports, vessels, and grain facilities have disrupted grain terminals and forced shippers to delay or cancel cargo loadings during the peak export season. Russian missile attacks have impacted Ukraine's grain exports, while Ukraine's drone attacks in the Sea of Azov have sharply curtailed Russian shipments of grain and wheat. Attacks on Russia's Novorossiysk and Taman ports have increased shipping costs out of its Black Sea ports. Joe Glauber, a research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said there is plenty of wheat in Russia and Ukraine, but it cannot reach the market or comes out at a very high cost.

Weather Impact on Production

Rising temperatures and lack of rain have threatened to cut this year's wheat harvest in South Africa's Swartland region. The Swartland produces about 20 percent of South Africa's wheat. Changing weather patterns have caused droughts that sharply reduced production in key growing areas.