China overtakes Russia as Kazakhstan's top trading partner in H1 2026
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
China accounted for 23.2% of Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover in January-June 2026, overtaking Russia's 18.4% share. Bilateral trade with China reached $16.65 billion, while trade with Russia stood at $13.22 billion, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. The shift reflects China's growing role as a supplier of machinery and equipment, even as Russia remains a broader source of fuel, food and industrial inputs.
Key Facts
- In January-June 2026, China accounted for 23.2% of Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover, compared with 18.4% for Russia.
- Bilateral trade with China reached $16.65 billion in the first half of 2026, while trade with Russia stood at $13.22 billion.
- Kazakhstan imported $9.14 billion worth of goods from China and $9.74 billion from Russia in the first half of 2026.
- Kazakhstan exported $7.51 billion to China and $3.49 billion to Russia in the first half of 2026.
- The government forecasts goods imports will rise to $88.4 billion by 2029, with exports projected at $88.5 billion.
Trade Structure Shift
China is increasingly supplying machinery, equipment, electrical goods and other investment products to Kazakhstan, while Russia remains a broader source of fuel, food and industrial inputs. Kazakhstan's exports to China are dominated by ores and concentrates, copper, oil and other raw materials, whereas exports to Russia are more diversified and include metals, chemicals, machinery and equipment. Tengenomika's analysis published on Aug. 27 notes that China is becoming a supplier of machinery and components for new production and infrastructure, while Russia continues to supply goods and inputs needed by Kazakhstan's economy today.
Investment Cycle Context
China's growing role is particularly significant as Kazakhstan enters a new investment cycle. The government forecasts that goods imports will rise to $88.4 billion by 2029, while exports are projected at $88.5 billion. Tengenomika highlights that the shift represents more than a change in Kazakhstan's largest trading partner, reflecting an emerging division of roles between China and Russia.
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China overtakes Russia as Kazakhstan's top trading partner in H1 2026
