Tajikistan projects GDP growth of 8.8% by 2029, industrial output to 164.8 bln somoni
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Tajikistan's government approved macroeconomic forecasts for 2027–2029, targeting GDP of nearly 291 billion somoni and annual growth of 8.4–8.8% by 2029. The decree, signed July 29, 2026, sets industrial output at 164.8 billion somoni and foreign direct investment at almost $1 billion per year. Russia and Tajikistan separately aim to increase bilateral trade 2.5-fold by 2030.
Key Facts
- Tajikistan's GDP is projected to reach 225.5 billion somoni in 2027, 254.6 billion in 2028, and nearly 291 billion in 2029.
- Annual economic growth is forecast at 8.4% in 2027, 8.6% in 2028, and 8.8% in 2029.
- Industrial production is expected to rise from 104.9 billion somoni in 2027 to 164.8 billion somoni in 2029, an annual increase of about 25%.
- Foreign direct investment is targeted at almost $1 billion per year by 2029.
- Russia and Tajikistan plan to increase bilateral trade 2.5-fold by 2030, according to Russia's trade representative Alexander Rybas.
Macroeconomic Targets
The government decree signed on July 29, 2026, sets the framework for the state budget for 2027–2029. GDP per capita is projected to grow from 20,400 somoni in 2027 to 25,200 somoni in 2029. The average annual population is expected to increase from about 11.1 million to 11.6 million over the same period. By 2029, GDP in monetary terms is planned to be about 65% higher than the 176.9 billion somoni recorded in 2025.
Industrial and Agricultural Projections
Industrial output is forecast at 104.9 billion somoni in 2027, 131.6 billion in 2028, and 164.8 billion in 2029. In 2025, industrial production was 66.7 billion somoni with real growth of 22.1%. Agricultural production is expected to rise from 104.6 billion somoni in 2027 to 125.4 billion somoni in 2029, with annual growth of 8–8.6%. Agriculture produced 84.7 billion somoni in 2025, with growth of 9.5%.
Investment and Trade Outlook
Fixed capital investment is projected at 38.9 billion somoni in 2027, 44.5 billion in 2028, and 51.4 billion in 2029. Total foreign investment, including loans, grants, and direct investment, is forecast at $8.6 billion in 2027 and $10.8 billion in 2029. Russia's trade representative Alexander Rybas announced the 2.5-fold trade target at the First International Food Industry Forum in Dushanbe. Bilateral trade reached a record in 2025, and growth in the first half of 2026 was almost one-third higher than the previous year.
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Tajikistan projects GDP growth of 8.8% by 2029, industrial output to 164.8 bln somoni
