Stanford study finds AI hits entry-level jobs hardest
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A Stanford study finds AI is hitting entry-level jobs hardest, with employment growth slowing in occupations requiring codified knowledge. The researchers warn the trend is real, persistent and widening, threatening the career on-ramp for new workers.
Key Facts
- Occupations with higher codified knowledge have slower entry-level employment growth, while occupations with higher tacit knowledge have faster employment growth for mid-career and senior workers.
- Occupations with a higher share of college graduates showed more muted differences between more-exposed and less-exposed occupations regarding AI.
- In jobs with few college graduates, the least AI-exposed occupations saw jobs growing and the most exposed occupations were declining in employment.
- Lead researcher Erik Brynjolfsson told The Washington Post that entry-level effects are real, persistent and widening.
Codified vs Tacit Knowledge
The researchers theorized that entry-level workers could be especially affected by AI's impact on jobs requiring heavily codified knowledge—formal, standardized, documented knowledge that can be taught through education, textbooks, or written procedures. This contrasts with jobs where AI mainly complements an experienced worker's more tacit knowledge, acquired through practice, mentorship, and repeated exposure to real situations. Using the required level of formal education in O*NET's occupational database as a proxy for reliance on codified knowledge, the researchers found that occupations with higher codified knowledge have slower entry-level employment growth. Occupations with higher tacit knowledge have faster employment growth for mid-career and senior workers.
Education as a Buffer
The researchers found that higher education might still serve as a buffer against the employment effects identified in the study. Occupations with a higher share of college graduates showed more muted differences between more-exposed and less-exposed occupations regarding AI. In jobs with few college graduates, the least AI-exposed occupations saw jobs growing and the most exposed occupations were declining in employment.
Researcher Warnings
Lead researcher Erik Brynjolfsson told The Washington Post that current trends suggest a near future in which jobs for those employed in the pre-AI era largely persist while many jobs for the incoming working-age cohort start disappearing. Brynjolfsson said the entry-level effects are real, persistent and widening. He added that he is more worried than before about a labor market that keeps its overall employment level while quietly closing the on-ramp for people starting their careers.
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Stanford study finds AI hits entry-level jobs hardest
