UK Met Office forecasts record El Niño could make 2027 hottest year

August 24, 2026 at 09:24 AM2 min

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The UK Met Office projects a record-strength El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures potentially exceeding 3°C above normal in some areas. Scientists warn this could make 2027 the hottest year on record. Current measurements already show anomalies above 2°C.

Key Facts

The UK Met Office forecasts that sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific could exceed the average by more than 3°C.
Current measurements already show a temperature anomaly significantly above 2°C.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said he has never seen such a strong El Niño signal.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year.
Scientists identify El Niño when sea surface temperatures in a specific Pacific region exceed the average by at least 0.5°C.

Record El Niño Forecast

The UK Met Office projects that the Pacific Ocean may develop the strongest El Niño event on record. In some areas, sea surface temperatures could exceed the long-term average by more than 3°C. This would be an unprecedented level since observations began in 1950. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the projected signal as unprecedented and said he had never seen such a strong El Niño.

2027 Temperature Projection

Scientists warn that such a scenario could make 2027 the hottest year on record. Current measurements already show temperature anomalies significantly above 2°C. El Niño releases significant heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, raising global average temperatures and altering precipitation patterns. The phenomenon is identified when sea surface temperatures in a specific Pacific region exceed the average by at least 0.5°C.

El Niño Mechanism

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year. During El Niño, trade winds that normally blow from east to west over the Pacific weaken or may reverse direction, causing warm ocean water to spread eastward. The current event is the strongest El Niño recorded since 1950 and possibly the most powerful since the 19th century.