Trump tariff shock cools Quebec separatist push before October 5 vote
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Support for Quebec independence has fallen to about 30%, its lowest level in decades, as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and annexation threats stir Canadian patriotism in the French-speaking province. Parti Quebecois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has vowed no third independence referendum while Trump remains in the White House, even as his party holds a slim lead in provincial election polls ahead of the October 5 vote.
Key Facts
- Support for Quebec sovereignty sits near 30%, its lowest level in decades, according to polls cited by Reuters.
- Parti Quebecois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon vowed no third independence referendum while Donald Trump remains U.S. president.
- The Heico Companies laid off 140 workers, mainly in Quebec, after Trump's 50% tariffs on Canadian steel cut orders by about a third in less than a week.
- Quebec is due to hold a provincial election by October 5, 2026.
- Quebec narrowly voted to stay in Canada in a 1995 referendum, prompting the federal government to ask the Supreme Court to clarify the legal procedure for separation.
Tariff Fallout
When Trump levied 50% tariffs on Canadian steel in June 2025, a Quebec factory owned by The Heico Companies lost about a third of its orders for bolts and fasteners in less than a week. The company froze hiring, closed a plant in the region, and laid off several dozen people, said operations director David Jeannotte, whose own brother lost his job. The cuts were part of 140 layoffs by the company, mainly in Quebec. The factory's troubles reflect broader anxiety over the fallout from Trump's trade war in Quebec, which is due to hold a provincial election by October 5.
Separatist Sentiment
While some previous economic slowdowns in the province prompted an increase in separatist sentiment, polls show that this time around support for an independent Quebec is at its lowest level in decades, at about 30%. Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st state and the whiplash from his tariff policy have spurred an outpouring of Canadian patriotism in Quebec, a province that regularly threatens to break away and has had two previous referendums on the issue. As the country's only majority French-speaking province, Quebec has a long-established separatist movement that argues independence from Canada is the best way to protect its distinct culture and language. Quebec has never formally signed the Canadian Constitution and separatists argue French Canadians are often overlooked by the English-dominated majority.
Election Calculus
The separatist Parti Quebecois currently holds a slim lead in provincial election polls and a win would mark the party's return to power after a dozen years. Analysts say a vote for the party would be more about disappointment with the ruling party than an endorsement of the PQ's independence platform. While the PQ is committed to a third independence referendum if it wins, leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon vowed that won't happen while Trump is president, a tacit recognition of falling support for independence. Quebec narrowly voted to stay in Canada in a 1995 referendum, spurring a national reckoning that resulted in the federal government asking the Supreme Court to clarify the legal procedure for separation.
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Trump tariff shock cools Quebec separatist push before October 5 vote
