Lula holds 47%-43% runoff lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in Datafolha poll
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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro by 47% to 43% in a simulated second-round runoff, according to a Datafolha poll released Friday. The challenger narrowed the gap by one percentage point from July, a change within the poll's two-point error margin. Lula's approval rating fell to 47% from 49%.
Key Facts
- Datafolha surveyed 2,058 people starting on August 18.
- In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 39% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 33%.
- Lula's disapproval rate rose to 50% from 48% in July.
- This was the first Datafolha poll released since the start of the official campaign.
Runoff Scenario
In a simulated second-round runoff, Lula would receive 47% of the vote against Bolsonaro's 43%. In July, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, by 48% to 43%. The one-point narrowing is within the poll's two-percentage-point error margin.
First-Round Field
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 39% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (33%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%), Renan Santos (4%), and Romeu Zema (3%). If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff, which has happened in every presidential election since 2002.
Approval and Campaign Context
Lula's approval rating fell to 47% from 49% in July, while his disapproval rate rose to 50% from 48%. This was the first Datafolha poll released since the start of the official campaign, when candidates are legally allowed to actively seek votes. It was also the first Datafolha poll after Brazil's Supreme Court authorized Federal Police to investigate Lula's eldest son on suspicion of illicit business dealings involving the federal government. Senator Bolsonaro saw his poll numbers fall after the revelation in May that he asked a now-jailed banker to finance a film about his father.
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Lula holds 47%-43% runoff lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in Datafolha poll
