Moderna cancer vaccine readout resets Wall Street debate on mRNA beyond Covid
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Moderna shares fell 12% in pre-market trading on Thursday after a 177% jump on news its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, met its primary goal in a Phase 3 melanoma trial alongside Merck's Keytruda. Wall Street analysts called the readout a proof point for mRNA beyond COVID, while cautioning that full validation depends on the complete dataset.
Key Facts
- Moderna shares fell 12% in pre-market trading on Thursday after a 177% surge the previous day following the intismeran Phase 3 melanoma readout.
- The intismeran-Keytruda combination met the trial's primary goal by reducing melanoma recurrence in patients whose tumours had been surgically removed.
- BofA analyst Alex Stranahan called the readout a watershed moment for Moderna, allowing the company to diversify away from infectious disease and potentially easing capital overhangs.
- JP Morgan analyst Jessica Fye said the launch of intismeran in adjuvant melanoma is key to Moderna returning to profitability, and noted the stock was already sitting at about a $25bn market cap with an 85% probability of success before the news.
- Citigroup analyst Geoff Meacham said meeting disease-free survival with no new safety signals is encouraging, but validation of Moderna's oncology platform depends on the full dataset.
The Trial Readout
Moderna and Merck announced that the personalized mRNA cancer vaccine intismeran successfully hit its primary goal in a Phase 3 late-stage trial, demonstrating a reduction in melanoma recurrence after surgical removal of tumors. The trial compared intismeran alongside Merck's immunotherapy drug Keytruda against Keytruda alone. Patients who received the combination lived longer without their cancer returning or spreading. Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, speaking on Yahoo Finance, described the results as 'pretty amazing.'
Wall Street Analysts
Jefferies analyst Tycho Peterson said the update represents an important proof point for the mRNA modality beyond legacy COVID and named bioprocessing and life science tools suppliers as potential winners. BofA analyst Alex Stranahan wrote that the readout reflects a watershed moment for Moderna, effectively allowing the company to diversify away from infectious disease and potentially easing persistent capital overhangs. Citigroup analyst Geoff Meacham said meeting the disease-free survival endpoint with no new safety signals reduces Phase 3 risk, but validation of the oncology platform depends on the full dataset and evidence across tumor types. JP Morgan analyst Jessica Fye said the launch of intismeran in adjuvant melanoma is key to Moderna returning to profitability, and that the stock sat at about a $25bn market cap with an 85% probability of success before the news.
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Moderna cancer vaccine readout resets Wall Street debate on mRNA beyond Covid
