U.S. Copper Imports Reach 12-Year High as LME Stocks Fall for 42 Sessions

August 17, 2026 at 10:00 PM2 min

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U.S. copper imports exceeded 200,000 tonnes in July, the largest monthly volume in at least 12 years, pushing total U.S. copper stockpiles past 1 million tonnes. LME warehouse stocks have fallen for 42 straight sessions to 204,975 tonnes, the longest losing streak since 2014. Cash copper trades at a $434-a-tonne premium to the three-month contract, near $14,500 a tonne, as tariff expectations and supply disruptions tighten physical availability outside the U.S.

Key Facts

U.S. importers brought in more than 200,000 tonnes of refined copper in July, the biggest monthly volume in at least 12 years.
Total U.S. copper stockpiles, including Comex warehouses, LME-registered stock and private port storage, now exceed 1 million tonnes.
LME warehouse stocks have fallen for 42 straight sessions to 204,975 tonnes, the longest losing streak since 2014, with nearly half marked for withdrawal.
Cash copper trades at a $434-a-tonne premium to the three-month contract, near $14,500 a tonne, the widest gap since the 2021 squeeze.
Societe Generale puts the odds of the proposed 15% tariff on refined copper landing on schedule at 14.6%.

U.S. Tariff-Driven Stockpile

U.S. importers hauled in more than 200,000 tonnes of refined copper in July, the biggest monthly volume in at least 12 years. That total, combined with metal already in Comex warehouses, LME-registered stock and private port storage, pushes the country's copper stockpile past 1 million tonnes. The buildup rests almost entirely on a bet that Washington will tax refined copper imports, with a proposed 15% tariff starting January 2027 and rising to 30% in 2028. The Commerce Department was supposed to deliver its recommendation by June 30, but the deadline passed without a public ruling. ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey told CNBC that the COMEX-LME spread has become a gauge of U.S. tariff expectations.

LME Shortage and Cash Premium

LME warehouse stocks have fallen for 42 straight sessions to 204,975 tonnes, the longest losing streak since 2014. Nearly half of that LME inventory is already marked for withdrawal. Cash copper trades at a $434-a-tonne premium to the three-month contract, the widest gap since the 2021 squeeze that forced the exchange to intervene. Buyers seeking prompt metal are paying record prices near $14,500 a tonne. Societe Generale puts the odds of the 15% tariff landing on schedule at 14.6% based on how the spread is priced, implying most of the rush will be for nothing.

Global Supply Disruptions

Congo's ban on copper concentrate exports has Chinese smelters cutting runs. Storms knocked Antofagasta's Los Pelambres offline, Codelco pushed its Andes Norte project back to 2029, and Chile's national output remains stuck near 5.5 million tonnes. Freeport's Gresik smelter in Indonesia has been down since August 8. Copper miners are riding the chaos higher, with Ivanhoe Mines up about 15% this month and First Quantum up 12%, while Antofagasta has slipped roughly 3% since trimming production guidance. None of that supply will refill LME shelves soon.