US boomcession: 1.5% GDP growth leaves 54% of low earners financially unstable
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The US economy grew 1.5% last quarter and unemployment sits at 4.1%, yet real wages have barely moved while consumer prices rose 3.5% over the past year. A Federal Reserve analysis found consumers are spending more than in 2019 while reporting they are struggling, and 54% of households earning $50,000 or less call their finances unstable or very unstable. Matt Stoller of the American Economic Liberties Project terms the gap between aggregate growth and household distress a "boomcession."
Key Facts
- US GDP grew 1.5% last quarter and unemployment stood at 4.1%.
- US consumer prices rose 3.5% over the past year, nearly wiping out the average private-sector worker's raise, according to the BLS Real Earnings report.
- A 2025 Federal Reserve analysis found consumers bought more than in 2019 while reporting they were struggling financially.
- 54% of households earning $50,000 or less called their finances unstable or very unstable in a Snap Finance survey cited by CNBC.
- Matt Stoller, research director at the American Economic Liberties Project, described the paradox as a "boomcession."
The Boomcession Paradox
By textbook measures, the US economy is not in recession, with GDP up 1.5% last quarter and unemployment at 4.1%. Matt Stoller, research director at the American Economic Liberties Project, described this paradox as a "boomcession" in an interview with CNBC. His definition matches what millions of workers already feel: paychecks buy less than a year ago, utility bills climb because of infrastructure they did not ask for, and young white-collar jobs are starting to disappear. The term follows the 2022 "vibecession," but Stoller's boomcession identifies who is being hit hardest rather than just noting a sour public mood.
Household Financial Strain
A 2025 Federal Reserve analysis compared sentiment surveys against verified retail purchases and found consumers were buying more than in 2019 while still reporting they were struggling. Incomes had grown, but prices had grown faster, leaving consumers exhausted from longer hours, second jobs, and cheaper substitutes. A Snap Finance survey cited by CNBC found about one in four respondents called their finances unstable or very unstable. Among households earning $50,000 or less, the share jumped to 54%, while 41% of borrowers with credit scores below 670 reported the same. The pain is not spread evenly, and standard economic indicators are not built to tell the boom and recession apart.
Wage and Price Gap
The average private-sector worker received a raise last year that was almost entirely wiped out by a 3.5% jump in consumer prices, according to the BLS Real Earnings report. For lower-paid production and nonsupervisory workers, pay fell short of prices entirely, and they ended the year with less buying power than they started with. A raise that gets swallowed by inflation is not a raise at all, the report indicates, but a means to an end.
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US boomcession: 1.5% GDP growth leaves 54% of low earners financially unstable
