Uzbekistan estimates Middle East risk at $1–1.5bn through 2029
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
Uzbekistan's Economy and Finance Ministry estimates the impact of Middle East tension at $1–1.5 billion, or 0.7–1% of GDP, through disruption of Iran transit corridors in its 2027–2029 fiscal strategy. The strategy also lists higher world oil, food and mineral fertilizer prices and a global slowdown as additional risks.
Key Facts
- Uzbekistan's Economy and Finance Ministry estimates the impact of Middle East tension at $1–1.5 billion, or 0.7–1% of GDP, through external trade and logistics channels.
- In 2025, goods worth $3.9 billion transited Iran as Uzbekistan's imports, equal to 9% of total imports.
- Uzbekistan exported $1.4 billion through Iran in 2025, about 10% of exports excluding gold.
- Technological equipment worth nearly $1 billion accounted for 14.8% of all technological equipment imported by Uzbekistan in 2025 via Iran.
- Direct trade with Iran, Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reached $2.1 billion in 2025, or 2.6% of Uzbekistan's total foreign trade.
Iran Transit Volumes
In 2025, $3.9 billion worth of imports passed through Iran to Uzbekistan, making up 9 percent of the country's total imports. Technological equipment accounted for about $1 billion, or 14.8 percent of all technological equipment imported by Uzbekistan. Other major import categories included food at $725 million, chemicals at $339.4 million, metals at $319.1 million, vehicles and spare parts at $278.7 million, pharmaceuticals at $259.7 million and electrical equipment at $229.7 million. Uzbekistan also exported $1.4 billion through Iran in 2025, equal to about 10 percent of non-gold exports. The main export categories were textiles at $546.5 million, metals at $422.3 million, chemicals at $143.6 million and fuel and oil products at $100.2 million.
Government Risk Assessment
The Economy and Finance Ministry says Middle East tension would primarily affect Uzbekistan through disruption of Iran transit corridors, higher transport costs and longer delivery times. The ministry estimates the impact through the external trade and logistics channel at $1–1.5 billion, or 0.7–1 percent of GDP. It also lists higher world prices for oil, food and mineral fertilizers and a slowdown in the global economy as additional risks. Direct trade with seven Middle East countries was $2.1 billion in 2025, or 2.6 percent of total foreign trade, which the ministry calls relatively small.
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Uzbekistan estimates Middle East risk at $1–1.5bn through 2029
