Public-sector borrowing, not private, drives Kazakhstan’s external debt to $182.8 billion
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Kazakhstan’s external debt rose 7.5% year-on-year to $182.8 billion as of April 1, driven almost entirely by a 39% jump in liabilities of the government and state-controlled institutions, while private-sector obligations remained flat and intercompany FDI debt declined. The figures signal a structural shift in the composition of Kazakhstan’s external liabilities toward public-sector borrowers. The increase leaves Kazakhstan with the largest external debt stock in Central Asia, accounting for 62.5% of the regional total.
Drivers of the Increase
Kazakhstan’s external debt expanded by $12.8 billion over the 12 months to April 1, from $170 billion to $182.8 billion. Public external debt rose from $14.7 billion to $18.9 billion, a jump of 39%, while intercompany FDI-related debt declined from $92.5 billion to $87.4 billion, or 5.5%. Private-sector debt remained virtually unchanged, underscoring that the growth was concentrated in sovereign and state-controlled borrowers.
Composition and Creditor Profile
Long-term debt makes up 87.1% of the total, with loans and borrowings accounting for 69.2% and debt securities for 13%. By jurisdiction, the Netherlands holds the largest nominal exposure at $40.8 billion, though 94% of that is intercompany FDI debt, not government borrowing. The United Kingdom ($19.8 billion), Russia ($16.7 billion), China ($13.8 billion) and the United States ($11 billion) are other major creditor jurisdictions, reflecting complex corporate and financial structures rather than direct bilateral sovereign lending.
Regional and Fiscal Context
Kazakhstan accounts for 62.5% of Central Asia’s total external debt of nearly $290.8 billion, which grew 34.9% over five years. Despite this, the country’s general government gross debt remains relatively low at around 24% of GDP, according to IMF data. This highlights that most of Kazakhstan’s external liabilities sit outside the central government balance sheet, with implications for fiscal risk management.
What's Next
The National Bank has cautioned that while the long-dated maturity profile limits immediate liquidity pressure, refinancing and servicing costs could rise if global financial conditions tighten. It remains unclear whether the ongoing shift toward public-sector borrowing will draw increased scrutiny from rating agencies and investors.
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Public-sector borrowing, not private, drives Kazakhstan’s external debt to $182.8 billion
