S&P 500 hits record high as Iran nuclear talks stall
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The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Friday, capping a rally sparked by a weak July jobs report. Stock futures pointed higher Monday, though gains were capped after Iran’s foreign minister ruled out restarting nuclear negotiations and set strict conditions for resolving the Strait of Hormuz standoff.
Record Rally
The S&P 500 ended Friday at a fresh all-time closing high, lifted by a weaker-than-expected July jobs report that showed a surprise contraction in nonfarm payrolls. All three major indexes posted their strongest week since April. In Monday premarket trading, S&P 500 futures rose 0.12% and Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.38%.
Iran Nuclear Deadlock
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that talks with Washington could not resume due to U.S. breaches of the June memorandum of understanding, according to Tasnim News Agency. Tehran also demanded a full U.S. troop withdrawal, sanctions relief, and war reparations to ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported. Those conditions contrast with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent signal to CNBC that an agreement was near, and President Donald Trump’s remark to Axios that Washington was “only semi-negotiating” while maintaining economic pressure.
Rate Expectations
Markets now assign a 44% probability to a September rate increase by the Federal Reserve, down from 67% a week earlier, according to CNBC, after the soft labor data dampened tightening bets. The July consumer price index, due Wednesday, is expected to show annual inflation of 3.4%, a modest step down from June’s 3.5%, per Wall Street Journal surveys. Earnings from On Holding, Cava Group, Super Micro, and CoreWeave are also on tap this week.
What's Next
The July CPI report on Wednesday is set to be the next major test for rate expectations. It remains unclear whether the Iran nuclear deadlock will pressure energy markets or yield a diplomatic opening.
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S&P 500 hits record high as Iran nuclear talks stall
