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Globe at Night Data Show Night Sky Brightening at 9.6% Annually

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Globe at Night Data Show Night Sky Brightening at 9.6% Annually

A study using 51,351 naked-eye observations from the Globe at Night programme found that night sky brightness increased by 9.6% annually from 2011 to 2022, according to research published in Science in 2023. The rate is far higher than the 1.8% per year estimated by satellite measurements, as artificial light scattering, especially blue light, escapes orbital sensors.

The Brightening Trend

Researchers analyzed 51,351 naked-eye reports from Globe at Night, a citizen-science project of NSF’s NOIRLab, collected from 2011 to 2022 across 19,262 locations. The data showed sky brightness increasing by 9.6% annually on average, with Europe experiencing a 6.5% rise and North America 10.4%. If the trend persists, a child who sees 250 stars tonight would see fewer than 100 from the same place by age 18, a fourfold reduction over 18 years.

Why Satellites Underestimated

Satellite-based measurements, such as from the VIIRS Day/Night Band instrument, had previously indicated slower growth: about 2.2% per year in lit area and 1.8% in total radiance from 2012 to 2016. The VIIRS sensor is insensitive to blue light below 500 nanometres, missing much of the emission from white LEDs that now dominate outdoor lighting. It also fails to detect sideways light, which scatters through the atmosphere and contributes to skyglow far from the source, leading to a significant underestimation of ground-level brightening.

What's Next

The study’s authors suggest that future satellite instruments should cover the full visible spectrum to accurately monitor light pollution. Whether municipalities and nations will adopt lighting policies that mandate warmer-color LEDs and better shielding to protect dark skies remains uncertain.

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Globe at Night Data Show Night Sky Brightening at 9.6% Annually