Kazakhstan may have lost over $700 million in July from CPC pipeline attacks, expert says
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Kazakhstan's oil and gas production fell 14% in July from the previous month, costing the country an estimated over $700 million in potential revenue, oil expert Olzhas Baidildinov said. The decline followed repeated shutdowns at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal due to drone attacks on tankers, halving output on some days and hitting exports that normally carry more than 80% of Kazakh oil.
The Output Decline
Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan dropped to about 7.6 million tonnes in July from 8.6 million tonnes in June, Reuters reported, a 14% decrease. Oil expert Olzhas Baidildinov cited the data, noting that on some days output more than halved. The slump coincided with repeated halts at the CPC terminal near Novorossiysk, the main export channel.
Pipeline Disruptions
The CPC terminal was repeatedly shut down after drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea, Reuters sources said. Operations remained unstable in early August due to the threat of further strikes and a shortage of tankers as some shipowners restricted calls at Russian ports. CPC Blend crude for August loading was offered at a nearly $4-per-barrel discount to dated Brent, compared with a premium just weeks earlier.
Revenue and Export Shifts
Baidildinov estimated the value of the 1 million tonnes of lost hydrocarbons at no less than $635 million, based on an average July Brent price of around $87 per barrel. Including lower gas output, the total exceeds $700 million. To bypass CPC, Tengizchevroil plans to send about 100,000 tonnes of oil by rail to Georgia’s Batumi port in August, though alternative route capacity remains limited. The energy ministry has said a full pipeline shutdown is not under consideration.
What's Next
The CPC terminal continues to work unstably in early August, with the threat of new attacks looming. It remains unclear whether alternative export routes can offset the disruption to CPC flows or how long the crisis will last, raising uncertainty over Kazakhstan’s oil revenue outlook.
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Kazakhstan may have lost over $700 million in July from CPC pipeline attacks, expert says
