Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea oil exports fall 41%, reroute options narrow to Suez pipeline
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Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu dropped 41% from a March peak to 2.39 million barrels daily in June, as Houthi attacks forced vessels to avoid the southern Red Sea, according to Windward data. Two LNG tankers were struck by drones in Egypt’s Damietta port on the Mediterranean, underscoring the risks to the remaining export corridor through the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline. The decline came even as OPEC’s top producer scrambled to redirect flows after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz.
Yanbu Export Decline
Saudi Arabia shifted onshore Arab Light volumes from the Persian Gulf to the 7-million-barrel-per-day Petroline pipeline to Yanbu after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz in early March, boosting Yanbu exports to 2.47 million bpd—a 330% surge from pre-war levels. By April, loadings exceeded 4 million bpd, but by June they had fallen to 2.39 million bpd, a 41% drop from the March peak and 66% below total January exports of 7.96 million bpd. Wood Mackenzie noted the decline, which coincided with a temporary ceasefire in late June that briefly restored Hormuz traffic before the deal collapsed and missile strikes resumed.
Reroute Constraints and SUMED Limits
With the Houthis declaring a blockade on Saudi vessels in the southern Red Sea, tankers from Yanbu now sail north toward the Suez Canal instead of south. The SUMED pipeline from Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea to the Mediterranean coast has a capacity of 2.5 million bpd, forcing Saudi Arabia to split its flows; Windward tracked at least three Saudi very large crude carriers moving crude from Yanbu to Ain Sukhna for pipeline transfer. The maritime intelligence firm also reported 12 vessels at Yanbu in dark mode and active ship-to-ship transfers, indicating ongoing operational adjustments.
Growing Mediterranean Risk
Two LNG tankers were hit by drones at Egypt’s Damietta terminal, showing that even the Suez-Mediterranean corridor is not secure. This follows the Houthi blockade and leaves Saudi Arabia with no alternative maritime export route out of the Middle East. As Hormuz remains effectively closed with only five tankers entering on July 29 and three exiting, the kingdom’s dependence on Egyptian infrastructure faces physical and security constraints that may cap total export capacity.
What's Next
The Saudi government is expected to continue crude loadings from Yanbu in dark mode, but further drone or missile attacks on Egypt’s ports could jeopardize the remaining route. It remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia can sustain export volumes above 4 million bpd if both the Hormuz and Red Sea southern passages stay blocked.
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Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea oil exports fall 41%, reroute options narrow to Suez pipeline
