Fighting resumes in Hormuz as US shifts strategy again
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Fighting in the Strait of Hormuz resumed less than four weeks after a June ceasefire collapsed, with clashes intensifying and expanding toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Trump administration has shifted strategy for the third time, combining airstrikes and a naval blockade. Brent crude oil surpassed $90 per barrel as shipping through the strait declined sharply.
Ceasefire Collapse
The June agreement collapsed due to ambiguous wording in Article 5: Washington interpreted it as full reopening of the strait, while Tehran insisted on its right to inspect every vessel. The International Crisis Group's Ali Vaez noted that each ceasefire becomes preparation for the next war. This pattern has now repeated, with fighting resuming after only four weeks.
Three Pillars Eroding
Foreign Affairs published three articles analyzing how the war is eroding the foundations of US global dominance. First, coercive capacity is undermined because Trump issues threats without credible guarantees, making resistance more rational for Iran. Second, technological-military superiority is strained: Iran's cheap drones and missiles deplete expensive US air defense stocks, prompting a $75 billion supplemental funding request. Third, legitimacy is declining: Pew data shows international trust in the US at a 20-year low, and V-Dem now classifies the US as an 'electoral democracy' rather than a 'liberal democracy'.
Escalation Trajectory
The conflict is expanding geographically toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening a broader regional crisis. Trump's comment that 'Vietnam lasted 19 years; we are in month four' implicitly acknowledged a prolonged campaign. The Pentagon's missile stocks are rapidly depleting, and the administration is seeking $75 billion in additional funding to sustain operations.
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Time · lag behind first