China to test planetary defense system on asteroid in 2029 or 2030
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Chinese researchers proposed a mission to alter the orbit of near-Earth asteroid 2015 XF261, aiming to test the nation's planetary defense system. The experiment is planned for 2029 or 2030, when the 30-meter asteroid will approach Earth within about 7 million km. A spacecraft will impact the asteroid at 9 km/s, over 26 times the speed of sound.
Mission Objectives
The mission targets asteroid 2015 XF261, first discovered in 2015. Led by Li Mingtao, a leading planetary defense specialist at the China National Space Administration, the team aims to either alter the asteroid's orbit relative to Earth or disrupt its structure. Four key objectives include precise impact, successful orbit change, reliable measurement of results, and confirmation that the impact creates no new threats to Earth.
Observation and Impact
A second spacecraft will monitor the asteroid during and after the collision, tracking changes in orbit, shape, and surface, as well as probing its interior. The impact velocity of 9 km/s is nearly 50% faster than NASA's DART mission, which successfully redirected an asteroid in 2022. If successful, this would be China's first comprehensive demonstration of planetary defense, combining detection, threat deflection, and result assessment in a single mission.
What's Next
China is expected to finalize the mission timeline and spacecraft design in the coming years. It remains unclear whether the 2029 or 2030 window will be selected, and how international collaboration, if any, will be structured.
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China to test planetary defense system on asteroid in 2029 or 2030
